FFC
Fauji Fertilizer CompanyLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 800bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 9.3×
- EPS (ttm)
- 59.82
- Dividend yield
- 6.6%
- Return on equity
- 34.4%
- Beta
- 0.28
- Free float
- 55%
- 52W high
- 685.00
- 52W low
- 369.71
- 1D change
- −0.50%
- YTD return
- −2.6%
Flagship urea producer with entrenched dealer distribution and post-merger scale across the fertilizer value chain.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
A 34% ROE cash machine, fully valued
- 01
Neutral, PKR 620 target: FFC is a high-quality compounder — 34% ROE, 6.6% yield — but at 9.3× the market already pays for the merged-scale story; total return, not a re-rate, is the case.
- 02
Post-merger scale entrenches the urea franchise and the dealer network; pricing power and a high payout are intact.
- 03
The cap is policy: feed/fuel gas pricing and the GIDC overhang sit between margin and shareholder.
- 04
At ~10.0× our FY26E EPS the target is PKR 620 — the ~18% total return is the call, not multiple expansion.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 86.0 | 89.0 | 93.0 |
| EPSPKR | 60.0 | 62.4 | 65.5 |
| DPSPKR | 37.0 | 38.5 | 40.0 |
| P/E× | 9.3× | 8.9× | 8.5× |
| EPS growth% | — | +4.0% | +5.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Gas-price shock; payout trimmed.
7.7× stressed EPS
Steady volumes; yield carries the return.
10.0× FY26E
Gas-pricing clarity re-rates the franchise.
11.3× FY26E
Is the dividend yield a floor or a trap?
A 6.6% yield on a defensive name is a hard floor.
Well-covered and a genuine support, but gas-pricing risk caps upside.
A durable resolution of feed-gas pricing.
Has the merger synergy been delivered?
Integration is done; the easy gains are in the base.
Largely captured; from here it is volume and pricing, not structural re-rating.
A new growth leg — exports or non-urea.
Does demand hold as subsidies normalise?
Subsidy withdrawal dents off-take.
Urea is inelastic and FFC holds share; steady, not a growth story.
Two seasons of double-digit off-take decline.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 62.2 | FY25 base +4% |
| Target multiple | ~10.0× FY26E | broadly in line with 9.3× |
| Total return | ~18% | ~11% price + 6.6% yield |
| 12-month target | PKR 620 | ≈10.0 × 62.2, rounded |
- 01Feed/fuel gas pricing & GIDCWATCH · OGRA notifications, GIDC rulings
- 02Urea demand / subsidyWATCH · NFDC off-take, support prices
- 03Payout sustainabilityWATCH · Cash flow, payout ratio
- 04Input cost / FXWATCH · Gas tariff, PKR/USD
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FFCFauji Fertilizer Company— THIS PAGE | 557.94 | −0.50% | 9.3× | 800bn | |
| EFERTEngro Fertilizers | 199.89 | −0.12% | 11.6× | 266bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.