HUBC
Hub Power CompanyLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 301bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 6.7×
- EPS (ttm)
- 34.65
- Dividend yield
- 6.5%
- Return on equity
- 21.1%
- Beta
- 0.48
- Free float
- 70%
- 52W high
- 249.99
- 52W low
- 131.00
- 1D change
- +0.29%
- YTD return
- +9.4%
Pakistan's largest IPP, diversifying from base-load thermal into Thar coal, and EV/battery ventures.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Cheap base-load, building a second act
- 01
Buy, PKR 280 target: at 6.7× with a 21% ROE and a 6.5% yield, HUBC is priced as expiring take-or-pay capacity — ignoring the pivot underway.
- 02
Thar coal, China-backed projects and downstream oil/EV stakes backfill the economics as legacy PPAs roll off.
- 03
Cash conversion is the catalyst — power-sector receivables gate the dividend, so the IMF energy-reform path is the swing factor.
- 04
At ~7.5× our FY26E EPS the target is PKR 280; you are paid 6.5% to wait for the re-rate.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 45.0 | 49.0 | 52.0 |
| EPSPKR | 34.6 | 37.4 | 39.6 |
| DPSPKR | 15.0 | 15.8 | 16.6 |
| P/E× | 6.7× | 6.2× | 5.9× |
| EPS growth% | — | +8.0% | +6.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Dividend cut; projects slip; base plants de-rate.
5.2× stressed EPS
Transition delivers; payout defended.
7.5× FY26E
Receivables clear; diversification re-rates.
8.6× FY26E
Is HUBC a melting ice cube?
Returns step down as PPAs expire; terminal value is low.
Thar coal and the diversification pipeline backfill the shed earnings; a transition, not a run-off.
New projects slipping while base plants de-rate.
Will the dividend survive the receivables drag?
Circular debt strangles cash; the yield is not safe.
HUBC has defended the payout through worse; a settlement underwrites it.
A dividend cut or an equity call to fund capex.
Do the new ventures earn their keep?
EV/battery and downstream bets are capital sinks.
Option value bought cheaply against a 6.7× core the market credits at zero.
Sustained losses in the new verticals.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 37.4 | FY25 base +8% as new capacity ramps |
| Target multiple | ~7.5× FY26E | modest re-rate from 6.7× |
| Dividend yield | 6.5% | paid to wait |
| 12-month target | PKR 280 | ≈7.5 × 37.4, rounded |
- 01Circular debt / payout cutWATCH · Power-sector receivables, payout ratio
- 02PPA expiry vs backfillWATCH · Plant dispatch, project COD dates
- 03New-venture capital dragWATCH · EV/battery & downstream results
- 04Fuel / FX on imported coalWATCH · Coal benchmarks, PKR/USD
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE