MTL
Millat TractorsLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 125bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 16.8×
- EPS (ttm)
- 18.64
- Dividend yield
- 9.6%
- Return on equity
- 91.2%
- Beta
- 0.22
- Free float
- 55%
- 52W high
- 318.50
- 52W low
- 232.50
- 1D change
- 0.00%
- YTD return
- +14.1%
Dominant tractor assembler with ~60% market share, levered to farm economics and agri credit.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
A 91% ROE monopoly — but the price is full
- 01
Neutral, PKR 330 target: MTL earns an extraordinary 91% ROE with a 9.6% yield and ~60% tractor share — but at 16.8× the asset-light quality is fully priced.
- 02
Falling rates and improving crop economics revive agri credit and tractor off-take, where MTL dominates.
- 03
The cash-generative, asset-light model funds a high payout through the cycle.
- 04
At ~16× FY26E the target is PKR 330 — the 9.6% yield is the return; we would buy a pull-back, not the premium.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 7.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| EPSPKR | 18.6 | 20.5 | 22.6 |
| DPSPKR | 30.0 | 32.4 | 35.0 |
| P/E× | 16.8× | 15.2× | 13.8× |
| EPS growth% | — | +10.0% | +10.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Off-take falls; subsidy withdrawn; multiple de-rates.
~12× stressed EPS
Farm recovery lifts volumes; yield carries the return.
~16× FY26E
Strong cycle; share gains compound.
~18× FY26E
Is 16.8× too rich for a cyclical?
Near 52-week highs and a high multiple leave little upside.
A 91% ROE monopoly earns a premium, but 16.8× already credits it; the return is the dividend.
Off-take accelerating beyond expectations, or a pull-back.
How cyclical is tractor demand?
Subsidy and crop-price swings make it volatile.
Cyclical, but MTL's share and cost position make it the quality way to own the cycle.
A subsidy withdrawal that depresses off-take.
Is the 91% ROE sustainable?
A peak farm cycle flatters returns.
Asset-light economics keep ROE structurally high, but that strength is in the multiple.
A capex cycle or margin compression denting returns.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 20.5 | FY25 base +10% |
| Target multiple | ~16× FY26E | premium, broadly in line with 16.8× |
| Total return | ~16% | ~6% price + 9.6% yield |
| 12-month target | PKR 330 | ≈16 × 20.5, rounded |
- 01Farm economics / subsidyWATCH · Crop prices, subsidy policy
- 02Valuation / full multipleWATCH · Multiple vs history
- 03Agri-credit availabilityWATCH · Agri lending, rates
- 04Cyclical demandWATCH · PAMA tractor volumes
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDUIndus Motor Company | 2,058.06 | −0.29% | 6.3× | 160bn | |
| MTLMillat Tractors— THIS PAGE | 312.38 | 0.00% | 16.8× | 125bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.