PSO
Pakistan State OilLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 165bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 3.8×
- EPS (ttm)
- 92.73
- Dividend yield
- 2.8%
- Return on equity
- 15.6%
- Beta
- 0.45
- Free float
- 45%
- 52W high
- 506.75
- 52W low
- 320.11
- 1D change
- −1.05%
- YTD return
- −25.4%
The national oil marketing company; dominant share of diesel and mogas volumes with a nationwide retail and storage network.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Deepest value in the market — for the brave
- 01
Buy, PKR 430 target: at 3.8× — the lowest multiple in coverage — PSO is priced for the circular-debt overhang to never resolve; we think that is too pessimistic.
- 02
The franchise is unmatched: dominant diesel and mogas share with a nationwide retail and storage network.
- 03
The catalyst is cash, not earnings — an IMF-anchored receivables settlement converts trapped profit into distributable cash.
- 04
At ~4.4× our FY26E EPS the target is PKR 430; high-risk, high-reward, sized accordingly.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 43.0 | 46.0 | 49.0 |
| EPSPKR | 93.0 | 98.6 | 104.5 |
| DPSPKR | 10.0 | 10.5 | 11.0 |
| P/E× | 3.8× | 3.6× | 3.4× |
| EPS growth% | — | +6.0% | +6.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Receivables worsen; working-capital squeeze.
2.9× stressed EPS
Volumes recover; settlement edges closer.
4.4× FY26E
Settlement lands; earnings de-risk and re-rate.
5.3× FY26E
Is 3.8× a trap or an opportunity?
Cheap for a reason — the cash never converts.
The discount over-prices the risk; a settlement is the asymmetric catalyst, and you are paid to wait through the cycle.
Another year of receivable growth with no settlement framework.
Can margins hold as volumes recover?
OMC margins are regulated and thin.
Volume leverage helps; this is primarily a balance-sheet, not a margin, story.
A structural OMC-margin cut.
How big is the balance-sheet risk?
High working capital and gearing are dangerous.
Real — PSO is the highest-beta way to play energy reform; size the position for that.
A liquidity event or sustained negative operating cash flow.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 98.3 | FY25 base +6% |
| Target multiple | ~4.4× FY26E | modest re-rate from 3.8× |
| Key catalyst | receivables settlement | the swing factor for cash |
| 12-month target | PKR 430 | ≈4.4 × 98.3, rounded |
- 01Circular-debt receivablesWATCH · Energy-chain receivables
- 02Inventory & FX volatilityWATCH · Oil price, PKR/USD
- 03Regulated marginsWATCH · OGRA margin notifications
- 04Gearing / liquidityWATCH · Short-term debt, operating cash flow
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE