FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
DATA AS OF 20 JUN 2026 · EOD

CARG

Cargills Ceylon
FOOD & RETAIL

LAST · LKR

649.41
−5.61 −0.86%

52W RANGE

619.24850.63
13% OF RANGE · YTD −17.0%
01 / CARG — 1 YearAS OF 20 JUN 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS

Source: CSE, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 20 Jun 2026, EOD.

02 / Fundamentals
Market cap
167bn
P/E (ttm)
15.8×
EPS (ttm)
41.18
Dividend yield
2.9%
Return on equity
25.6%
Beta
0.17
Free float
36%
52W high
850.63
52W low
619.24
1D change
−0.86%
YTD return
−17.0%

Cargills Ceylon is a constituent of the Colombo Stock Exchange. Preview data — live CSE feed pending.

03 / Research NoteAS OF 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Coverage
CARG
Food & Retail
Rating
NEUTRAL
+8% 12-mo upside
12-Mo Target
700.00LKR
TARGET PRICE
Close
649.41LKR
23 Jun 2026
Market Cap
167bn
LKR
52-Week Range
619.24850.63
13% OF RANGE

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

Consumer-recovery growth, premium multiple

  1. 01

    Neutral, LKR 700 target: Cargills is the leading food-and-retail play with a 26% ROE, geared to the consumer recovery — but at 15.8× the growth is priced.

  2. 02

    Modern-trade expansion and a recovering consumer drive double-digit earnings growth.

  3. 03

    The quality and growth are real, but the multiple already credits them.

  4. 04

    At ~15× FY26E our LKR 700 target is modest; we would add on a pull-back to play the consumer recovery.

Estimates
MetricFY25AFY26EFY27E
Net profitLKR bn11.012.013.0
EPSLKR41.146.051.5
DPSLKR18.520.021.6
P/E×15.8×14.1×12.6×
EPS growth%+12.0%+12.0%

A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE

Risk / RewardVS CLOSE 649.41 LKR
BEAR540.00−17%
BASE700.00+8%
BULL820.00+26%
NOW649.41
BEAR−17%
540.00LKR

Consumer relapse; margins squeezed.

11× stressed EPS

BASE+8%
700.00LKR

Consumer recovery; modern-trade share gains.

15× FY26E

BULL+26%
820.00LKR

Growth re-accelerates; operating leverage.

17× FY26E

Key Debates
01

Does growth justify 15.8×?

Market View

Rich for a domestic retailer.

Our View

Growth and a 26% ROE earn a premium, but it is full at 15.8×.

What Would Change Our Mind

A pull-back, or growth re-accelerating beyond expectations.

02

Is the consumer recovery durable?

Market View

Real incomes are still recovering.

Our View

Modern-trade share gains compound the recovery; durable but priced.

What Would Change Our Mind

A consumer-spending relapse.

03

Margin pressure from expansion?

Market View

Store rollout drags near-term margins.

Our View

Operating leverage improves margins as the network matures.

What Would Change Our Mind

Margins failing to expand with scale.

Valuation BridgeLKR · 12-MO
AssumptionValueBasis
FY26E EPSLKR 46.1FY25 base +12%
Target multiple~15× FY26Epremium, broadly in line
Dividend yield2.9%modest; growth is the case
12-month targetLKR 700≈15 × 46.1, rounded
Key RisksRANKED · W/ INDICATOR
  • 01
    Consumer-spending recovery
    WATCH · Retail volumes, real incomes
  • 02
    Valuation / premium
    WATCH · Multiple vs history
  • 03
    Expansion margin drag
    WATCH · Store economics, margins
  • 04
    Rupee / input costs
    WATCH · LKR/USD, food prices

— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE