CTC
Ceylon TobaccoLAST · LKR
52W RANGE
Source: CSE, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 20 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 341bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 11.7×
- EPS (ttm)
- 155.65
- Dividend yield
- 8.5%
- Return on equity
- 232.5%
- Beta
- 0.04
- Free float
- 25%
- 52W high
- 2,308.12
- 52W low
- 1,725.30
- 1D change
- −0.78%
- YTD return
- −9.9%
Ceylon Tobacco is a constituent of the Colombo Stock Exchange. Preview data — live CSE feed pending.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
A cash machine paying 8.5%
- 01
Buy, LKR 2,050 target: Ceylon Tobacco is the market's purest cash compounder — an enormous ROE, near-full payout and an 8.5% yield — at a defensive 11.7×.
- 02
Pricing power and an inelastic product deliver resilient cash flows through the cycle.
- 03
The recovery in real incomes supports legal-volume stabilisation after the crisis-era squeeze.
- 04
At ~12.5× FY26E our LKR 2,050 target plus the 8.5% yield is a high-teens total return from a defensive.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitLKR bn | 29.0 | 31.0 | 33.0 |
| EPSLKR | 155.7 | 165.0 | 174.9 |
| DPSLKR | 155.5 | 164.8 | 174.7 |
| P/E× | 11.7× | 11.0× | 10.4× |
| EPS growth% | — | +6.0% | +6.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Excise shock; volumes fall; payout trimmed.
9.5× stressed EPS
Volumes stabilise; the yield carries the return.
12.5× FY26E
Real-income recovery lifts legal volumes.
13.5× FY26E
Is excise/regulatory risk underpriced?
Tax hikes and illicit trade erode volumes.
Real and the main risk, but pricing power and the yield compensate; CTC has navigated it for decades.
A punitive excise hike or a surge in illicit trade.
Can volumes stabilise?
Down-trading and illicit cigarettes shrink the legal market.
Recovering real incomes support stabilisation off a low base.
Continued double-digit legal-volume decline.
Is the yield sustainable?
Near-full payout leaves no cushion.
The asset-light, cash-generative model funds it comfortably.
A volume collapse that cuts cash flow.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | LKR 165.0 | FY25 base +6% |
| Target multiple | ~12.5× FY26E | defensive quality re-rate |
| Dividend yield | 8.5% | near-full payout |
| 12-month target | LKR 2,050 | ≈12.5 × 165.0, rounded |
- 01Excise / regulationWATCH · Tobacco tax policy
- 02Illicit tradeWATCH · Legal-volume share
- 03Volume declineWATCH · Stick volumes
- 04ESG / exclusionWATCH · Institutional mandates
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE