DGKC
D.G. Khan CementLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 95bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 7.8×
- EPS (ttm)
- 27.64
- Dividend yield
- 0.9%
- Return on equity
- 12.2%
- Beta
- 0.76
- Free float
- 65%
- 52W high
- 275.75
- 52W low
- 140.25
- 1D change
- +0.60%
- YTD return
- −4.5%
Nishat-group cement producer with north and south plants and meaningful export exposure to Afghanistan and seaborne markets.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
High-beta leverage to the cement upcycle
- 01
Buy, PKR 250 target: with dispatches turning up sector-wide, DGKC's operating and financial leverage make it the higher-beta way to play the cement recovery.
- 02
North and south plants plus export exposure to Afghanistan and seaborne markets give volume optionality as the cycle extends.
- 03
The catch is quality — a 12% ROE and a leveraged balance sheet mean the upside is cyclical, not structural.
- 04
On recovering FY26E earnings at ~8.1× the target is PKR 250; a cycle trade, sized accordingly.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 12.0 | 13.0 | 15.0 |
| EPSPKR | 27.8 | 31.1 | 34.8 |
| DPSPKR | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| P/E× | 7.8× | 7.0× | 6.2× |
| EPS growth% | — | +12.0% | +12.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Demand stalls; leverage bites.
5.3× stressed EPS
Dispatch upcycle lifts volumes and margin.
8.1× FY26E
Cycle extends; operating leverage compounds.
9.7× FY26E
Is the cement recovery real?
May sales fell; the upturn is fragile.
11-month dispatches are up and tracking a >50Mt year; DGKC's leverage magnifies that.
Two post-budget months of double-digit dispatch decline.
Does leverage make it too risky?
High beta and gearing punish you in a downturn.
Real risk — a higher-volatility expression of a bullish cement call, not a core holding.
Finance costs outrunning the volume recovery.
Can margins recover with costs high?
Coal and energy squeeze the low-ROE names first.
Operating leverage cuts both ways; a >50Mt year and pricing discipline lift DGKC disproportionately.
Gross margin failing to expand as volumes rise.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 31.0 | FY25 base +12% on operating leverage |
| Target multiple | ~8.1× FY26E | cyclical recovery from 7.8× |
| Beta | 0.76 | higher-beta cement proxy |
| 12-month target | PKR 250 | ≈8.1 × 31.0, rounded |
- 01Demand reversal post-budgetWATCH · APCMA monthly dispatches
- 02Coal / energy & PKRWATCH · Coal benchmarks, PKR/USD
- 03Financial leverageWATCH · Net debt, finance cost
- 04Pricing-discipline breakWATCH · Regional cement prices
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCKLucky Cement | 459.06 | −0.85% | 8.1× | 670bn | |
| DGKCD.G. Khan Cement— THIS PAGE | 216.59 | +0.60% | 7.8× | 95bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.