LUCK
Lucky CementLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 670bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 8.1×
- EPS (ttm)
- 56.88
- Dividend yield
- 0.9%
- Return on equity
- 22.1%
- Beta
- 0.53
- Free float
- 60%
- 52W high
- 529.50
- 52W low
- 315.00
- 1D change
- −0.85%
- YTD return
- −4.6%
Pakistan's largest cement producer and the anchor of a five-engine industrial group spanning grey cement, power generation, autos, chemicals and pharmaceuticals.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 11 JUN 2026 · EOD
Paying a cement multiple for a conglomerate grind
- 01
Buy, PKR 520 target: at 7.1× our FY26E EPS of PKR 61.0, LUCK is priced as a cement cyclical while attributable EPS compounds double digits — +13.3% y/y in 1HFY26 to PKR 30.45.
- 02
Five engines — grey cement, export clinker, the 660MW Lucky Electric plant, Lucky Motor and Lucky Core Industries — delivered FY25 consolidated net profit of PKR 77.0bn on revenue of PKR 449.6bn.
- 03
The sector tailwind is the strongest in five years: 11MFY26 dispatches +6.4% to 46.3Mt, domestic +8.3% to 38.0Mt, with FY26 tracking above 50Mt for the first time since FY21.
- 04
The FY26 tension is cost: 1H COGS rose +15.5% against gross revenue +11.1%, taking gross profit −3.3%; our base case assumes pricing discipline holds while fuel normalises.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| RevenuePKR bn | 449.6 | 497.0 | 540.0 |
| Net profit (consol.)PKR bn | 77.0 | 85.0 | 94.0 |
| EPS (attrib.)PKR | 53.7 | 61.0 | 67.5 |
| P/E× | 8.0× | 7.1× | 6.4× |
| EPS growth% | — | +13.6% | +10.7% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Fuel / PKR shock outruns pricing; dispatch recovery stalls post-budget.
6.5× stressed EPS 55
Margins stabilise and the >50Mt year lands.
8.5× FY26E
Cycle extends into FY27; conglomerate mix forces an SOTP re-rate.
9.5× FY27E
Is the demand recovery real, or did May kill it?
May-26 sales fell 21% y/y — the recovery is stalling.
One month against an 11-month trend: domestic is +8.3% over 11MFY26, the FY is tracking >50Mt and 1QFY26 ran +16.3%. Pre-budget May pauses are seasonal.
Two consecutive post-budget months of double-digit domestic decline, or north-region prices breaking >5%.
Can margins survive FY26 input costs?
1H gross-margin compression (−3.3% on COGS +15.5%) is a down-cycle signature.
The below-the-line response — distribution −11.3%, PAT still +10.4% — shows operational defence; sector profits were +34% in 1QFY26 and +7% in 3QFY26.
4QFY26 gross margin failing to stabilise sequentially while pricing holds.
Conglomerate discount, or premium?
Auto, chemicals and power deserve a holdco discount.
The mix lowered earnings volatility — LCI operating +16%, pharma +80% offsetting cement's squeeze; five engines rarely trough together, so it should re-rate toward the market multiple.
Capital allocation into sub-scale verticals, or auto rolling over while cement margins are compressed.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 61.0 | 2 × 1H EPS of 30.45 |
| FY27E EPS growth | +10.7% | cycle extension into FY27 |
| Target multiple | 8.5× FY26E | re-rating from 7.1× toward diversified-industrial peers |
| 12-month target | PKR 520 | 8.5 × 61.0 |
- 01Energy costs / PKRWATCH · Coal benchmarks, PKR/USD
- 02Demand reversal post-budgetWATCH · APCMA monthly dispatches, Jun–Aug
- 03Pricing-discipline breakWATCH · North-region price surveys
- 04Non-cement dragWATCH · Lucky Motor volumes, LCI soda-ash margins
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCKLucky Cement— THIS PAGE | 459.06 | −0.85% | 8.1× | 670bn | |
| DGKCD.G. Khan Cement | 216.59 | +0.60% | 7.8× | 95bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.