FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
DATA AS OF 20 JUN 2026 · EOD

JKH

John Keells Holdings
CONGLOMERATE

LAST · LKR

22.60
+0.02 +0.09%

52W RANGE

20.5026.10
38% OF RANGE · YTD −12.4%
01 / JKH — 1 YearAS OF 20 JUN 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS

Source: CSE, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 20 Jun 2026, EOD.

02 / Fundamentals
Market cap
358bn
P/E (ttm)
29.4×
EPS (ttm)
0.77
Dividend yield
1.5%
Return on equity
5.1%
Beta
0.32
Free float
48%
52W high
26.10
52W low
20.50
1D change
+0.09%
YTD return
−12.4%

John Keells Holdings is a constituent of the Colombo Stock Exchange. Preview data — live CSE feed pending.

03 / Research NoteAS OF 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Coverage
JKH
Conglomerate
Rating
BUY
+19% 12-mo upside
12-Mo Target
27.00LKR
TARGET PRICE
Close
22.60LKR
23 Jun 2026
Market Cap
358bn
LKR
52-Week Range
20.5026.10
38% OF RANGE

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

Trough earnings mask a recovery conglomerate

  1. 01

    Buy, LKR 27 target: the optically high 29× is on trough earnings (5% ROE); as leisure, consumer and property recover, the forward multiple collapses.

  2. 02

    Sri Lanka's bellwether — leisure, retail, property, financial services and ports — is the cleanest proxy on the post-IMF recovery and the tourism rebound.

  3. 03

    Falling rates revive the property and consumer arms while a stronger rupee eases imported-input costs across the group.

  4. 04

    On a normalising earnings base our LKR 27 target is ~13× recovered EPS — a re-rate as ROE climbs back toward mid-teens.

Estimates
MetricFY25AFY26EFY27E
Net profitLKR bn12.017.022.0
EPSLKR0.81.11.4
DPSLKR0.30.40.5
P/E×28.3×20.5×16.1×
EPS growth%+40.0%+30.0%

A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE

Risk / RewardVS CLOSE 22.60 LKR
BEAR20.00−12%
BASE27.00+19%
BULL32.00+42%
NOW22.60
BEAR−12%
20.00LKR

Recovery stalls; ROE stuck at trough.

trough earnings

BASE+19%
27.00LKR

Tourism and consumer recover; ROE climbs.

~13× recovered EPS

BULL+42%
32.00LKR

Sharp leisure rebound; full re-rate.

premium to recovered EPS

Key Debates
01

Is 29× too expensive?

Market View

A high multiple on a low ROE is a poor entry.

Our View

It is trough-earnings optics; on recovered earnings the multiple is mid-teens and falling.

What Would Change Our Mind

Earnings recovery stalling as tourism plateaus.

02

Is the tourism recovery durable?

Market View

Arrivals are volatile and event-driven.

Our View

Arrivals and room rates are on a multi-year rebuild off a low base; JKH's leisure assets have operating leverage.

What Would Change Our Mind

A external shock to arrivals or a security setback.

03

Does the conglomerate discount persist?

Market View

Holdco complexity caps the multiple.

Our View

A cleaner portfolio and a recovering ROE argue for the discount to narrow.

What Would Change Our Mind

Capital allocated to low-return ventures.

Valuation BridgeLKR · 12-MO
AssumptionValueBasis
FY26E EPSrecovering+40% off a trough base
Target basis~13× recovered EPSre-rate as ROE normalises
ROE path5% → mid-teensleisure & property recovery
12-month targetLKR 27recovery re-rate
Key RisksRANKED · W/ INDICATOR
  • 01
    Tourism / consumer recovery
    WATCH · Arrivals, room rates, retail volumes
  • 02
    Earnings-recovery timing
    WATCH · Quarterly segment profit
  • 03
    Rupee / imported inputs
    WATCH · LKR/USD
  • 04
    Holdco discount
    WATCH · NAV gap, capital allocation

— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

04 / Sector Peers
SymbolLastChg %P/EM. Cap1Y
JKHJohn Keells Holdings— THIS PAGE22.60+0.09%29.4×358bn
MELSMelstacorp195.27+1.08%11.3×217bn

Source: CSE, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 20 Jun 2026, EOD.