JKH
John Keells HoldingsLAST · LKR
52W RANGE
Source: CSE, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 20 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 358bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 29.4×
- EPS (ttm)
- 0.77
- Dividend yield
- 1.5%
- Return on equity
- 5.1%
- Beta
- 0.32
- Free float
- 48%
- 52W high
- 26.10
- 52W low
- 20.50
- 1D change
- +0.09%
- YTD return
- −12.4%
John Keells Holdings is a constituent of the Colombo Stock Exchange. Preview data — live CSE feed pending.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Trough earnings mask a recovery conglomerate
- 01
Buy, LKR 27 target: the optically high 29× is on trough earnings (5% ROE); as leisure, consumer and property recover, the forward multiple collapses.
- 02
Sri Lanka's bellwether — leisure, retail, property, financial services and ports — is the cleanest proxy on the post-IMF recovery and the tourism rebound.
- 03
Falling rates revive the property and consumer arms while a stronger rupee eases imported-input costs across the group.
- 04
On a normalising earnings base our LKR 27 target is ~13× recovered EPS — a re-rate as ROE climbs back toward mid-teens.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitLKR bn | 12.0 | 17.0 | 22.0 |
| EPSLKR | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| DPSLKR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| P/E× | 28.3× | 20.5× | 16.1× |
| EPS growth% | — | +40.0% | +30.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Recovery stalls; ROE stuck at trough.
trough earnings
Tourism and consumer recover; ROE climbs.
~13× recovered EPS
Sharp leisure rebound; full re-rate.
premium to recovered EPS
Is 29× too expensive?
A high multiple on a low ROE is a poor entry.
It is trough-earnings optics; on recovered earnings the multiple is mid-teens and falling.
Earnings recovery stalling as tourism plateaus.
Is the tourism recovery durable?
Arrivals are volatile and event-driven.
Arrivals and room rates are on a multi-year rebuild off a low base; JKH's leisure assets have operating leverage.
A external shock to arrivals or a security setback.
Does the conglomerate discount persist?
Holdco complexity caps the multiple.
A cleaner portfolio and a recovering ROE argue for the discount to narrow.
Capital allocated to low-return ventures.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | recovering | +40% off a trough base |
| Target basis | ~13× recovered EPS | re-rate as ROE normalises |
| ROE path | 5% → mid-teens | leisure & property recovery |
| 12-month target | LKR 27 | recovery re-rate |
- 01Tourism / consumer recoveryWATCH · Arrivals, room rates, retail volumes
- 02Earnings-recovery timingWATCH · Quarterly segment profit
- 03Rupee / imported inputsWATCH · LKR/USD
- 04Holdco discountWATCH · NAV gap, capital allocation
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JKHJohn Keells Holdings— THIS PAGE | 22.60 | +0.09% | 29.4× | 358bn | |
| MELSMelstacorp | 195.27 | +1.08% | 11.3× | 217bn |
Source: CSE, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 20 Jun 2026, EOD.