FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
PakistanSri LankaPREV
EquitiesFixed Income
DATA AS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD

OGDC

Oil & Gas Development Company
E&P

LAST · PKR

331.59
−2.54 ▼ −0.76%
P/E 9.2× · YIELD 4.5% · ROE 11.4%

52W RANGE

208.67348.72
88% OF RANGE · YTD +18.1%
01 / OGDC — 1 YearAS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS▲
The Call
NEUTRAL+9%
360.00PKR · 12-MO
9.4× FY26E

Fairly valued; awaits a settlement catalyst.

Risks to our view
02 /

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

A cash-rich major, but no longer the cheap one

  1. 01

    Neutral, PKR 360 target: at 9.2× with an 11.4% ROE, OGDC is fairly valued — the easy re-rate is behind it, and a 4.5% yield does not by itself make the call.

  2. 02

    The franchise is unmatched — the largest reserves and deepest exploration acreage in the country — but returns are middling for a state-run major.

  3. 03

    Circular debt still caps cash returns; an IMF-anchored settlement is the upside catalyst, not the base case you pay 9× for.

  4. 04

    At ~9.4× our FY26E EPS the target is PKR 360 — single-digit upside; we would want either a settlement or a cheaper entry to turn constructive.

Where we differ from the street
Street viewOur viewWe change our mind if
A 9× state oil major with reserves must be cheap.9.2× for an 11% ROE is fair, not cheap; the market already credits the reserves.A circular-debt settlement that lifts cash ROE.
Receivables keep the payout capped.The 4.5% yield is real but unremarkable; settlement is the swing factor.A concrete energy-sector receivables resolution.
Mature fields; depletion will out.Deep acreage supports replacement, but production growth is modest.Two years of sub-1.0× reserve replacement.

— FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE