OGDC
Oil & Gas Development CompanyLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 1.44tn
- P/E (ttm)
- 9.2×
- EPS (ttm)
- 36.17
- Dividend yield
- 4.5%
- Return on equity
- 11.4%
- Beta
- 0.46
- Free float
- 15%
- 52W high
- 340.60
- 52W low
- 202.00
- 1D change
- +0.90%
- YTD return
- +19.1%
Pakistan's largest E&P company by reserves and production, operating across all four provinces with the country's deepest exploration acreage portfolio.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
A cash-rich major, but no longer the cheap one
- 01
Neutral, PKR 360 target: at 9.2× with an 11.4% ROE, OGDC is fairly valued — the easy re-rate is behind it, and a 4.5% yield does not by itself make the call.
- 02
The franchise is unmatched — the largest reserves and deepest exploration acreage in the country — but returns are middling for a state-run major.
- 03
Circular debt still caps cash returns; an IMF-anchored settlement is the upside catalyst, not the base case you pay 9× for.
- 04
At ~9.4× our FY26E EPS the target is PKR 360 — single-digit upside; we would want either a settlement or a cheaper entry to turn constructive.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 157.0 | 166.0 | 176.0 |
| EPSPKR | 36.3 | 38.5 | 40.8 |
| DPSPKR | 15.0 | 15.8 | 16.6 |
| P/E× | 9.2× | 8.7× | 8.2× |
| EPS growth% | — | +6.0% | +6.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Receivables build; weak Brent; payout static.
7.4× stressed EPS
Fairly valued; awaits a settlement catalyst.
9.4× FY26E
Energy reform releases cash; special dividend.
11.0× FY26E
Is OGDC a value stock?
A 9× state oil major with reserves must be cheap.
9.2× for an 11% ROE is fair, not cheap; the market already credits the reserves.
A circular-debt settlement that lifts cash ROE.
Does the cash ever return?
Receivables keep the payout capped.
The 4.5% yield is real but unremarkable; settlement is the swing factor.
A concrete energy-sector receivables resolution.
Reserves — growing or depleting?
Mature fields; depletion will out.
Deep acreage supports replacement, but production growth is modest.
Two years of sub-1.0× reserve replacement.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 38.3 | FY25 base +6% |
| Target multiple | ~9.4× FY26E | broadly in line with the current 9.2× |
| Dividend yield | 4.5% | adequate, not a standout |
| 12-month target | PKR 360 | ≈9.4 × 38.3, rounded |
- 01Circular-debt escalationWATCH · Receivables on quarterly accounts
- 02Oil price & PKRWATCH · Arab Light, PKR/USD
- 03Reserve replacementWATCH · Annual replacement ratio
- 04Policy / windfall levyWATCH · Federal budget, petroleum levy
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGDCOil & Gas Development Company— THIS PAGE | 334.25 | +0.90% | 9.2× | 1.44tn | |
| MARIMari Energies | 658.67 | +0.03% | 11.5× | 788bn | |
| PPLPakistan Petroleum | 242.63 | +0.29% | 8.4× | 665bn | |
| POLPakistan Oilfields | 687.08 | −0.96% | 7.2× | 195bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.