FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
DATA AS OF 22 JUN 2026 · EOD

PPL

Pakistan Petroleum
E&P

LAST · PKR

242.63
+0.69 +0.29%

52W RANGE

151.30284.60
69% OF RANGE · YTD +4.4%
01 / PPL — 1 YearAS OF 22 JUN 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS

Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.

02 / Fundamentals
Market cap
665bn
P/E (ttm)
8.4×
EPS (ttm)
28.99
Dividend yield
3.1%
Return on equity
10.9%
Beta
0.70
Free float
25%
52W high
284.60
52W low
151.30
1D change
+0.29%
YTD return
+4.4%

Second-largest E&P player and operator of the legacy Sui gas field, with a growing exploration footprint in frontier basins.

03 / Research NoteAS OF 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Coverage
PPL
E&P / Energy
Rating
NEUTRAL
+7% 12-mo upside
12-Mo Target
260.00PKR
TARGET PRICE
Close
242.63PKR
23 Jun 2026
Market Cap
665bn
PKR
52-Week Range
151.30284.60
69% OF RANGE

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

Reserves yes, returns no — fairly valued

  1. 01

    Neutral, PKR 260 target: at 8.4× with an 11% ROE and a 3.1% yield, PPL screens fair — the deep discount thesis the multiple once carried has closed.

  2. 02

    Sui is maturing and frontier exploration backfills only slowly; the volume trajectory is flat-to-soft.

  3. 03

    As across the sector, circular-debt receivables cap cash returns; settlement is the upside, not the base case.

  4. 04

    At ~8.6× our FY26E EPS the target is PKR 260 — modest upside; we prefer to wait for a cheaper entry or a settlement.

Estimates
MetricFY25AFY26EFY27E
Net profitPKR bn79.083.087.0
EPSPKR28.930.331.8
DPSPKR7.57.98.3
P/E×8.4×8.0×7.6×
EPS growth%+5.0%+5.0%

A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE

Risk / RewardVS CLOSE 242.63 PKR
BEAR200.00−18%
BASE260.00+7%
BULL310.00+28%
NOW242.63
BEAR−18%
200.00PKR

Receivables build; dry wells; Sui declines.

6.6× stressed EPS

BASE+7%
260.00PKR

Fairly valued; reserves hold.

8.6× FY26E

BULL+28%
310.00PKR

Settlement plus exploration success.

10.0× FY26E

Key Debates
01

Cheaper than OGDC — a better buy?

Market View

The discount to OGDC signals value.

Our View

Both are now fairly valued; comparable reserves, comparable middling returns.

What Would Change Our Mind

Reserve growth or a settlement that lifts cash ROE.

02

Can exploration replace Sui?

Market View

Frontier basins are slow and risky.

Our View

A multi-block portfolio spreads risk but only slowly offsets Sui's decline.

What Would Change Our Mind

A run of dry wells across the acreage.

03

Is the yield enough?

Market View

3.1% is thin for an E&P.

Our View

It is — the income case is weak and caps the rating at Neutral.

What Would Change Our Mind

A step-up in payout on a receivables settlement.

Valuation BridgePKR · 12-MO
AssumptionValueBasis
FY26E EPSPKR 30.4FY25 base +5%
Target multiple~8.6× FY26Ein line with the current 8.4×
Dividend yield3.1%thin for the sector
12-month targetPKR 260≈8.6 × 30.4, rounded
Key RisksRANKED · W/ INDICATOR
  • 01
    Circular-debt escalation
    WATCH · Receivables on quarterly accounts
  • 02
    Sui decline / reserves
    WATCH · Reserve-replacement ratio
  • 03
    Oil price & PKR
    WATCH · Arab Light, PKR/USD
  • 04
    Exploration / dry-well risk
    WATCH · Frontier well results

— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

04 / Sector Peers
SymbolLastChg %P/EM. Cap1Y
OGDCOil & Gas Development Company334.25+0.90%9.2×1.44tn
MARIMari Energies658.67+0.03%11.5×788bn
PPLPakistan Petroleum— THIS PAGE242.63+0.29%8.4×665bn
POLPakistan Oilfields687.08−0.96%7.2×195bn

Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.