FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
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EquitiesFixed Income
DATA AS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD

PPL

Pakistan Petroleum
E&P

LAST · PKR

232.42
−4.13 ▼ −1.75%
P/E 8.4× · YIELD 3.1% · ROE 10.9%

52W RANGE

156.27276.46
63% OF RANGE · YTD 0.0%
01 / PPL — 1 YearAS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS▲
The Call
NEUTRAL+12%
260.00PKR · 12-MO
8.6× FY26E

Fairly valued; reserves hold.

Risks to our view
02 /

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

Reserves yes, returns no — fairly valued

  1. 01

    Neutral, PKR 260 target: at 8.4× with an 11% ROE and a 3.1% yield, PPL screens fair — the deep discount thesis the multiple once carried has closed.

  2. 02

    Sui is maturing and frontier exploration backfills only slowly; the volume trajectory is flat-to-soft.

  3. 03

    As across the sector, circular-debt receivables cap cash returns; settlement is the upside, not the base case.

  4. 04

    At ~8.6× our FY26E EPS the target is PKR 260 — modest upside; we prefer to wait for a cheaper entry or a settlement.

Where we differ from the street
Street viewOur viewWe change our mind if
The discount to OGDC signals value.Both are now fairly valued; comparable reserves, comparable middling returns.Reserve growth or a settlement that lifts cash ROE.
Frontier basins are slow and risky.A multi-block portfolio spreads risk but only slowly offsets Sui's decline.A run of dry wells across the acreage.
3.1% is thin for an E&P.It is — the income case is weak and caps the rating at Neutral.A step-up in payout on a receivables settlement.

— FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE