HBL
Habib BankLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 430bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 6.5×
- EPS (ttm)
- 45.16
- Dividend yield
- 8.1%
- Return on equity
- 15.1%
- Beta
- 0.87
- Free float
- 49%
- 52W high
- 369.99
- 52W low
- 160.05
- 1D change
- −1.15%
- YTD return
- −10.5%
Pakistan's largest commercial bank by assets with a 1,700+ branch network and growing digital franchise.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
The cheapest big bank, with an 8% yield
- 01
Buy, PKR 350 target: HBL is the largest bank at 6.5× with an 8.1% yield after a de-rate — value for a franchise whose ROE is recovering.
- 02
Scale is the moat — a 1,700+ branch network and a growing digital base anchor low-cost deposits.
- 03
Past one-offs (overseas remediation, provisioning) are clearing, freeing earnings the multiple ignores.
- 04
A re-rate to ~7.3× FY26E gets to PKR 350; the gap to higher-ROE peers should narrow.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 66.0 | 70.0 | 77.0 |
| EPSPKR | 45.4 | 48.1 | 52.9 |
| DPSPKR | 24.0 | 25.4 | 26.9 |
| P/E× | 6.5× | 6.1× | 5.6× |
| EPS growth% | — | +6.0% | +10.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Fresh one-off; ROE recovery stalls.
5.0× stressed EPS
Returns normalise; discount narrows.
7.3× FY26E
Full re-rate to a peer-ROE multiple.
8.3× FY27E
Is HBL cheap for a reason?
A 15% ROE and legacy issues justify the discount.
The issues are clearing and returns are climbing; the discount overstates residual risk.
A new compliance or overseas provisioning event.
Can the largest bank still grow?
Size caps growth.
Digital and consumer add incremental growth; the call is re-rating, not rapid growth.
Market-share loss in core deposits.
NIM exposure as rates fall?
Asset-sensitive like the sector.
Scale-led low-cost funding cushions the give-back, and the 8% yield pays you to wait.
Sharp NIM compression without a volume offset.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 47.9 | FY25 base +6% |
| Target multiple | ~7.3× FY26E | narrow the peer gap from 6.5× |
| Dividend yield | 8.1% | paid to wait for the re-rate |
| 12-month target | PKR 350 | ≈7.3 × 47.9, rounded |
- 01Compliance / overseasWATCH · Regulatory actions, provisioning
- 02NIM compressionWATCH · Policy rate, quarterly NIM
- 03Asset qualityWATCH · Infection ratio
- 04Sovereign durationWATCH · Investment book, yields
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBLUnited Bank | 437.46 | −0.16% | 7.7× | 1.10tn | |
| MEBLMeezan Bank | 512.17 | −0.16% | 10.2× | 921bn | |
| MCBMCB Bank | 400.10 | −0.70% | 8.3× | 474bn | |
| HBLHabib Bank— THIS PAGE | 294.98 | −1.15% | 6.5× | 430bn | |
| BAHLBank Al Habib | 170.71 | −1.53% | 6.5× | 185bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.