FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
PakistanSri LankaPREV
EquitiesFixed Income
DATA AS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD

HBL

Habib Bank
BANKS

LAST · PKR

310.93
−2.85 ▼ −0.91%
P/E 6.5× · YIELD 8.1% · ROE 15.1%

52W RANGE

216.17363.83
64% OF RANGE · YTD −5.7%
01 / HBL — 1 YearAS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS▲
The Call
BUY+13%
350.00PKR · 12-MO
7.3× FY26E

Returns normalise; discount narrows.

Risks to our view
02 /

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

The cheapest big bank, with an 8% yield

  1. 01

    Buy, PKR 350 target: HBL is the largest bank at 6.5× with an 8.1% yield after a de-rate — value for a franchise whose ROE is recovering.

  2. 02

    Scale is the moat — a 1,700+ branch network and a growing digital base anchor low-cost deposits.

  3. 03

    Past one-offs (overseas remediation, provisioning) are clearing, freeing earnings the multiple ignores.

  4. 04

    A re-rate to ~7.3× FY26E gets to PKR 350; the gap to higher-ROE peers should narrow.

Where we differ from the street
Street viewOur viewWe change our mind if
A 15% ROE and legacy issues justify the discount.The issues are clearing and returns are climbing; the discount overstates residual risk.A new compliance or overseas provisioning event.
Size caps growth.Digital and consumer add incremental growth; the call is re-rating, not rapid growth.Market-share loss in core deposits.
Asset-sensitive like the sector.Scale-led low-cost funding cushions the give-back, and the 8% yield pays you to wait.Sharp NIM compression without a volume offset.

— FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE