UBL
United BankLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 1.10tn
- P/E (ttm)
- 7.7×
- EPS (ttm)
- 56.82
- Dividend yield
- 7.3%
- Return on equity
- 36.8%
- Beta
- 0.65
- Free float
- 49%
- 52W high
- 517.00
- 52W low
- 258.50
- 1D change
- −0.16%
- YTD return
- +2.8%
Top-tier bank with the sector's highest payout ratio and a strong remittance and digital banking franchise.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
A 37% ROE and a 7% yield at under eight times
- 01
Buy, PKR 510 target: UBL earns a 37% ROE — best among the big banks — pays a 7.3% yield, and trades at just 7.7×.
- 02
Remittances and a leading digital franchise drive low-cost deposits and fee income, cushioning NIM as rates fall.
- 03
The sector's highest payout ratio turns earnings straight into shareholder cash.
- 04
Even a modest re-rate to ~8.5× FY26E gets to PKR 510; with the yield, total return clears 20%.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 143.0 | 150.0 | 165.0 |
| EPSPKR | 56.8 | 59.6 | 65.6 |
| DPSPKR | 32.0 | 33.9 | 35.9 |
| P/E× | 7.7× | 7.3× | 6.7× |
| EPS growth% | — | +5.0% | +10.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Deep cuts compress NIM; payout trimmed.
6.4× stressed EPS
Fee income defends earnings; yield carries it.
8.5× FY26E
ROE holds near 37%; full re-rate.
9.5× FY27E
Is the high payout a risk?
A heavy payout signals limited growth.
It reflects capital discipline and surplus generation, not distress; coverage is sound.
A payout cut or a capital-adequacy strain.
How exposed is UBL to NIM compression?
An asset-sensitive book bleeds as rates fall.
Remittance-fed CASA and fee income offset much of the give-back.
Two quarters of sharp NIM compression with no fee offset.
International exposure — asset or risk?
Overseas operations add volatility.
A rationalised footprint now adds remittance reach more than tail risk.
A fresh overseas credit or regulatory shock.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 59.7 | FY25 base +5% |
| Target multiple | ~8.5× FY26E | re-rate on a 37% ROE |
| Total return | ~24% | ~17% price + 7.3% yield |
| 12-month target | PKR 510 | ≈8.5 × 59.7, rounded |
- 01NIM compressionWATCH · Policy rate path, quarterly NIM
- 02Payout sustainabilityWATCH · Payout ratio, CAR
- 03Asset qualityWATCH · Infection ratio, cost of risk
- 04Sovereign / PIB durationWATCH · Investment book, yields
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBLUnited Bank— THIS PAGE | 437.46 | −0.16% | 7.7× | 1.10tn | |
| MEBLMeezan Bank | 512.17 | −0.16% | 10.2× | 921bn | |
| MCBMCB Bank | 400.10 | −0.70% | 8.3× | 474bn | |
| HBLHabib Bank | 294.98 | −1.15% | 6.5× | 430bn | |
| BAHLBank Al Habib | 170.71 | −1.53% | 6.5× | 185bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.