FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
PakistanSri LankaPREV
EquitiesFixed Income
DATA AS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD

UBL

United Bank
BANKS

LAST · PKR

476.41
−7.65 ▼ −1.58%
P/E 7.7× · YIELD 7.3% · ROE 36.8%

52W RANGE

306.10494.67
90% OF RANGE · YTD +11.9%
01 / UBL — 1 YearAS OF 13 JUL 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS▲
The Call
BUY+7%
510.00PKR · 12-MO
8.5× FY26E

Fee income defends earnings; yield carries it.

Risks to our view
02 /

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

A 37% ROE and a 7% yield at under eight times

  1. 01

    Buy, PKR 510 target: UBL earns a 37% ROE — best among the big banks — pays a 7.3% yield, and trades at just 7.7×.

  2. 02

    Remittances and a leading digital franchise drive low-cost deposits and fee income, cushioning NIM as rates fall.

  3. 03

    The sector's highest payout ratio turns earnings straight into shareholder cash.

  4. 04

    Even a modest re-rate to ~8.5× FY26E gets to PKR 510; with the yield, total return clears 20%.

Where we differ from the street
Street viewOur viewWe change our mind if
A heavy payout signals limited growth.It reflects capital discipline and surplus generation, not distress; coverage is sound.A payout cut or a capital-adequacy strain.
An asset-sensitive book bleeds as rates fall.Remittance-fed CASA and fee income offset much of the give-back.Two quarters of sharp NIM compression with no fee offset.
Overseas operations add volatility.A rationalised footprint now adds remittance reach more than tail risk.A fresh overseas credit or regulatory shock.

— FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE