FIRST ASIA SECURITIES
DATA AS OF 22 JUN 2026 · EOD

MCB

MCB Bank
BANKS

LAST · PKR

400.10
−2.83 −0.70%

52W RANGE

273.00452.00
71% OF RANGE · YTD +9.0%
01 / MCB — 1 YearAS OF 22 JUN 2026 · EOD
PERIOD 1Y · 250 SESSIONS

Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.

02 / Fundamentals
Market cap
474bn
P/E (ttm)
8.3×
EPS (ttm)
47.99
Dividend yield
9.0%
Return on equity
18.8%
Beta
0.44
Free float
60%
52W high
452.00
52W low
273.00
1D change
−0.70%
YTD return
+9.0%

Premium-CASA bank renowned for cost discipline and consistently high return on equity.

03 / Research NoteAS OF 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Coverage
MCB
Banks
Rating
NEUTRAL
+7% 12-mo upside
12-Mo Target
430.00PKR
TARGET PRICE
Close
400.10PKR
23 Jun 2026
Market Cap
474bn
PKR
52-Week Range
273.00452.00
71% OF RANGE

FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD

Premium CASA, premium price

  1. 01

    Neutral, PKR 430 target: MCB is the quality CASA bank — 18.8% ROE, 9.0% yield, famed cost discipline — but at 8.3× the quality is largely priced.

  2. 02

    A low-cost current-account franchise is the best defence against falling rates, protecting spread where peers leak.

  3. 03

    Cost discipline and benign credit costs keep returns steady through the cycle.

  4. 04

    At ~8.6× FY26E the target is PKR 430 — high-single-digit price upside; the 9.0% yield does the heavy lifting.

Estimates
MetricFY25AFY26EFY27E
Net profitPKR bn57.059.064.0
EPSPKR48.250.154.1
DPSPKR36.037.839.7
P/E×8.3×8.0×7.4×
EPS growth%+4.0%+8.0%

A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE

Risk / RewardVS CLOSE 400.10 PKR
BEAR340.00−15%
BASE430.00+7%
BULL500.00+25%
NOW400.10
BEAR−15%
340.00PKR

Sharp cuts; spread erodes.

6.8× stressed EPS

BASE+7%
430.00PKR

CASA defends spread; yield carries return.

8.6× FY26E

BULL+25%
500.00PKR

Growth surprises; quality re-rates further.

9.5× FY27E

Key Debates
01

Does premium quality justify a premium multiple?

Market View

MCB always trades up — limited re-rating left.

Our View

Quality is real but mostly priced; the return is the dividend, not multiple expansion.

What Would Change Our Mind

A step-up in growth or a sector-wide re-rating.

02

How resilient is the NIM?

Market View

Even the best CASA bank loses spread as rates fall.

Our View

It loses least; the current-account mix is the moat.

What Would Change Our Mind

CASA mix deteriorating materially.

03

Where does growth come from?

Market View

Conservative lending caps loan growth.

Our View

Fee income and investment gains supplement modest credit growth; steady, not fast.

What Would Change Our Mind

A sustained drop in non-interest income.

Valuation BridgePKR · 12-MO
AssumptionValueBasis
FY26E EPSPKR 49.9FY25 base +4%
Target multiple~8.6× FY26Epremium, broadly in line with 8.3×
Total return~16%~7% price + 9.0% yield
12-month targetPKR 430≈8.6 × 49.9, rounded
Key RisksRANKED · W/ INDICATOR
  • 01
    NIM compression
    WATCH · Policy rate, quarterly NIM
  • 02
    Tepid loan growth
    WATCH · Advances growth
  • 03
    Asset quality
    WATCH · Infection ratio
  • 04
    PIB duration
    WATCH · Investment book, yields

— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

04 / Sector Peers
SymbolLastChg %P/EM. Cap1Y
UBLUnited Bank437.46−0.16%7.7×1.10tn
MEBLMeezan Bank512.17−0.16%10.2×921bn
MCBMCB Bank— THIS PAGE400.10−0.70%8.3×474bn
HBLHabib Bank294.98−1.15%6.5×430bn
BAHLBank Al Habib170.71−1.53%6.5×185bn

Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.