MCB
MCB BankLAST · PKR
52W RANGE
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.
- Market cap
- 474bn
- P/E (ttm)
- 8.3×
- EPS (ttm)
- 47.99
- Dividend yield
- 9.0%
- Return on equity
- 18.8%
- Beta
- 0.44
- Free float
- 60%
- 52W high
- 452.00
- 52W low
- 273.00
- 1D change
- −0.70%
- YTD return
- +9.0%
Premium-CASA bank renowned for cost discipline and consistently high return on equity.
FAS DESK · FIRST ASIA SECURITIES RESEARCH · 23 JUN 2026 · EOD
Premium CASA, premium price
- 01
Neutral, PKR 430 target: MCB is the quality CASA bank — 18.8% ROE, 9.0% yield, famed cost discipline — but at 8.3× the quality is largely priced.
- 02
A low-cost current-account franchise is the best defence against falling rates, protecting spread where peers leak.
- 03
Cost discipline and benign credit costs keep returns steady through the cycle.
- 04
At ~8.6× FY26E the target is PKR 430 — high-single-digit price upside; the 9.0% yield does the heavy lifting.
| Metric | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profitPKR bn | 57.0 | 59.0 | 64.0 |
| EPSPKR | 48.2 | 50.1 | 54.1 |
| DPSPKR | 36.0 | 37.8 | 39.7 |
| P/E× | 8.3× | 8.0× | 7.4× |
| EPS growth% | — | +4.0% | +8.0% |
A = REPORTED · E = FAS ESTIMATE
Sharp cuts; spread erodes.
6.8× stressed EPS
CASA defends spread; yield carries return.
8.6× FY26E
Growth surprises; quality re-rates further.
9.5× FY27E
Does premium quality justify a premium multiple?
MCB always trades up — limited re-rating left.
Quality is real but mostly priced; the return is the dividend, not multiple expansion.
A step-up in growth or a sector-wide re-rating.
How resilient is the NIM?
Even the best CASA bank loses spread as rates fall.
It loses least; the current-account mix is the moat.
CASA mix deteriorating materially.
Where does growth come from?
Conservative lending caps loan growth.
Fee income and investment gains supplement modest credit growth; steady, not fast.
A sustained drop in non-interest income.
| Assumption | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| FY26E EPS | PKR 49.9 | FY25 base +4% |
| Target multiple | ~8.6× FY26E | premium, broadly in line with 8.3× |
| Total return | ~16% | ~7% price + 9.0% yield |
| 12-month target | PKR 430 | ≈8.6 × 49.9, rounded |
- 01NIM compressionWATCH · Policy rate, quarterly NIM
- 02Tepid loan growthWATCH · Advances growth
- 03Asset qualityWATCH · Infection ratio
- 04PIB durationWATCH · Investment book, yields
— GENERATED BY FIRST ASIA SECURITIES · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
| Symbol | Last | Chg % | P/E | M. Cap | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBLUnited Bank | 437.46 | −0.16% | 7.7× | 1.10tn | |
| MEBLMeezan Bank | 512.17 | −0.16% | 10.2× | 921bn | |
| MCBMCB Bank— THIS PAGE | 400.10 | −0.70% | 8.3× | 474bn | |
| HBLHabib Bank | 294.98 | −1.15% | 6.5× | 430bn | |
| BAHLBank Al Habib | 170.71 | −1.53% | 6.5× | 185bn |
Source: PSX, First Asia Securities Research. Data as of 22 Jun 2026, EOD.